The University of Connecticut scientist analysed history between 1780 and 2010 and claimed to find a trend of unrest around every 50 years.

 2020 has seen the world face a virus pandemic and riots over police brutality
2020 has seen the world face a virus pandemic and riots over police brutality

Mathematician Peter Turchin concluded from his research that the US was in for upheaval in 2020.

He published his study in the Journal of Peace Research back in 2012, long before we knew about the global pandemic or the killing of George Floyd that resulted in worldwide protests.

Turchin argued that a 50 year cycle of violence occurs again and again in different countries all over the world.

He listed economic inequality as one of the problems that causes a surge in social issues.

 The scientists think unrest comes around in a 50 year cycle
The scientists think unrest comes around in a 50 year cycle

After violent events, he said a 20 to 30 year rest period occurs with people trying to quell the violence before things bubble up again.

However, lots of academics have disputed this 50 year theory and don’t think there is enough historic evidence to prove it.

Turchin told Live Science: “The prediction [of violence] followed from observing the trends that make a violent upheaval increasingly likely — falling living standards for the majority of population, growing intra-elite competition and conflict.

“These trends didn’t go away and continue developing in unfavorable directions.

“This means that there will be more turbulence, driven by other immediate triggers.”

Jack Goldstone, a sociologist at George Mason University in the US, also told the publication: “The pandemic and police brutality this year acted as ‘triggers’ to unleash the pressures for violence that had been rising for some time

“What the model predicts is that the 2020s will be dangerous, and that unless the underlying pressures are reduced, the late 2020s and 2030s could be even worse.”

The scientists don’t think violent cycles are driven by fate but by the way society reacts to challenges.

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